Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Diskusjon om politiske temaer fra det internasjonale nyhetsbildet.

Inflation is Here to Stay

Innlegg Panther 03 Feb 2011, 21:10

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/economics/inflation/6256-inflation-is-here-to-stay.html

1 February 2011 Michael Pento

For me, there is no escaping the conclusion that inflation will continue to surge. Inflation is, after all, the increase in money supply.

In current economic analysis, inflation is largely in the eye of the beholder, and depending on how you choose to look, very different stories emerge. In the U.S., food and beverages count for just 16.4% of the CPI calculation. The Chinese apparently believe that the basic necessities of life should count for more, assigning a 33% weight to the nutritional components. These differences in measurement are partially responsible for the divergent inflation climate in both countries, and make most people believe that inflation is fickle and localized. From my perspective, inflation is a global wave that will ultimately swamp all shores.

As the world's economic leaders gather in Davos Switzerland, much of the discussion has been focused on a report jointly issued by the Global Economic Forum and McKinsey & Co. which forecasts a $100 trillion increase in global debt in the coming decade. The authors of the report argue that such an increase will be needed to maintain global economic health. Strangely, while acknowledging how the massive increase in credit caused the global financial crisis of 2008, the report's authors admit no fear of even greater leverage today. They conclude: "Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and much more of it will be needed to sustain the recovery and enable the developing world to achieve its growth potential."
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Is The US Rally Sustainable?

Innlegg Panther 05 Feb 2011, 19:16

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/6259-is-the-us-rally-sustainable.html

5 February 2011 Peter Schiff

We have always held that ultra-low interest rates distort the investment landscape by forcing yield-starved investors from bonds into equities. Driven by this massive government subsidy, along with a high real rate of inflation, the stock market cannot help but rally.

This week, the financial media celebrated as the Dow closed above the 12,000 mark for the first time since June 19th, 2008. For many, this milestone is another sign that the financial nightmare of the past three years will soon fade in the rearview mirror.

The euphoria over share prices has been bolstered by recently released data which catalogs rising consumer confidence and spending, and corporate earnings reports that have beaten estimates. In the meantime, the bond markets have remained resilient, despite evidence of massive public debt problems that bubble beneath the surface. But is this optimism based upon enough sound evidence to support long-term investment?


In short, the impressive recovery experienced recently by the US stock market is unlikely to be sustained through natural means. When the markets do ultimately turn south, the Fed will surely arrive on the scene with more liquidity. When that happens, the very currency upon which these investments are based will erode from under them.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Financial Disconnect

Innlegg Panther 17 Feb 2011, 19:56

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/6273-financial-disconnect.html

John Browne

The printing of fiat money is likely to be able to sustain a false economic recovery for some time.

Despite last week's confusing employment data, the increasing threat of another decline in home values, political uncertainty in Egypt and the broader Middle East, and sharp pullbacks in some emerging markets such as Brazil, US stock markets continued to rise. It sometimes seems that Wall Street exists in a bubble that is well-insulated from the rough and tumble of the outside world. But, in what may be a harbinger that America's era of prosperity is winding down, the hallowed New York Stock Exchange, long the epicenter of American economic might, is expected to be bought by Germany's Deutsche Boerse. When the king is so unceremoniously uncrowned, it won't be long before investors notice how shabbily dressed he really is.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the unemployment rate had fallen from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Many in the financial media seized on the report and bundled it together with recently released data on improved consumer sentiment as great news for the economy. However, the report only showed 36,000 new jobs created, far less that the 146,000 that economists estimate need to be created to bring down unemployment significantly. Regardless, US stock markets continued to rise.

One must remember that the unemployment figure excludes those who have given up looking for jobs altogether. The percentage of Americans who have jobs continues to shrink. By factoring back in those who have left the work force over the last few years, many economists have concluded that the real unemployment rate is closer to 20 percent.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Geithner's Failed Makeover

Innlegg Panther 17 Feb 2011, 19:57

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/6275-geithner-s-failed-makeover.html

17 February 2011 Michael Pento

The plan does nothing to address the Fed's role in making interest rates much lower and more volatile than they would otherwise be. Unfortunately the housing market will remain in government control for years to come and another real estate crisis will inevitably occur.

To counter the increasing demands that government reduce its micromanagement of the economy, last week the Obama Administration offered a fig leaf in the form of a white paper entitled "Reforming America's Housing Finance Market." In addition to marking the official end of the Bush era "ownership society," where increasing the level of home ownership was a national priority, the document contains a recommended regulatory overhaul of the Federal Housing Authority (FHA) as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (together known as Government Sponsored Enterprises "GSE's"), that intends to bring the share of government owned home loans from the current 95% to 40% over the next 5-7 years.

In the report, the Obama Administration makes the important admission that government interference in housing had dangerously distorted the market. And, while the goal of reducing the government's footprint in the housing market is certainly laudable, the reform plan is not only too little too late, but fails miserably to address the nucleus of the problem. Even if all the recommendations are adopted, the government would actually extend its explicit guarantees to bail out failing lenders. Most importantly, the proposal completely overlooks the most significant government distortion of the housing market: the Federal Reserve's manipulation of interest rates. Thus, this plan will insure that government's role in the mortgage market will likely expand in the years ahead.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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The Era of Entitlement

Innlegg Panther 22 Mar 2011, 13:00

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/welfare/6336-%EF%BB%BFthe-era-of-entitlement.html

19 March 2011 Michael Hurd

A mere decade ago, when Bill Clinton left office, a fifth of the income of Americans came from government. Now more than a third of American income comes from the government. Is it any wonder the economy is not growing?

From Investor's Business Daily: Using data mined from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, TrimTabs Investment Research has found that 35% of wages and salaries this year will be in the form of a government payment. That’s up sharply from 2000, when it was 21%, which is more than double the rate of 1960. The payouts are primarily Social Security and Medicare benefits, and unemployment checks. But they are not limited to those programs.


Americans are in for a rude awakening if they let the impoverishment and moral/economic weakening caused by rampant welfare statism set in.

We're all taught that a great society takes care of its vulnerable. This may be true, in a rational and voluntary sense. But it's not the definition of a great society. The things that make a society great, strong and wealthy are initiative, purpose, intelligence and hard work.

America is drifting away from all these things. Why? So we can have permanent unemployment benefits. And Social Security. And Medicare. And ObamaCare. And the endless list to follow. It's already underway and there's clearly little these poor Republicans in Congress are able to do to stop it. Will a Republican President such as Mitt Romney, or Sarah Palin, reverse our course? Unlikely.

In the end, it will be up to the productive sectors of American society to wage an anti-Marxist revolution. Not a bloody one. Just one in which they refuse to work until the government starts leaving them alone. It may sound far-fetched, but in a way it’s already happening. The most productive members of American society are on a quiet strike, even a subconscious one. Under Obama and the hapless Congress, there’s less wealth being produced. Private investors are not investing. Why should they, only to help Obama become even more of a dictator than he’s already becoming? Good for them. Let the economy flounder until the government goes so broke that the welfare state must collapse. And good riddance to what history will refer to as the Era of Entitlement.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg QIQrrr 22 Mar 2011, 15:01

Reuters, March 21, 2011: The Supreme Court let stand a ruling that the U.S. Federal Reserve must disclose details about its emergency lending programs to banks during the financial crisis in 2008. A group representing major commercial banks had asked the high court to reverse a ruling by a federal appeals court that required disclosure of the lending records. The justices rejected the banks' appeals - Supreme Court allows Fed bailout records release
Børge Svanstrøm Amundsen

"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Interest Rates Are on the Launch Pad

Innlegg Panther 23 Mar 2011, 12:39

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/6342-interest-rates-are-on-the-launch-pad.html

23 March 2011 Michael Pento

The bottom line is that a massive increase in the supply of debt coupled with a rising rate of inflation will always place upward pressure on interest rates.

A few months ago, the chorus sung by the recovery cheerleaders reached a crescendo when expanding consumer credit statistics and surging US trade deficits provided them with "evidence" of an economic rebound. In declaring victory, they overlooked the very nucleus of this past crisis: namely, the enormous debt levels and bubbling inflation that created fragile asset bubbles. If they had recognized the original problem, they would have remained silent. In reality, only a reduction in US debt levels or increase in the value of the dollar would have signaled a budding recovery; but, thanks to the Federal Reserve and Obama Administration, there is virtually no way those results will ever be seen.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Socialism Won't Lower the Cost of Gas

Innlegg Panther 31 Mar 2011, 14:08

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/science/energy/6350-socialism-won-t-lower-the-cost-of-gas.html

30 March 2011 Michael Hurd

Liberals like Obama seem to really believe that the horse and buggy was replaced by the automobile because of ... collective action, fostered by government. They actually believe that innovation, invention and radical changes in technology all come about because of government. In reality, just the opposite is true.

Oil and gas prices are higher than ever, and are going still higher.

Everybody knows it. The oil-producing Middle East is becoming more unstable than ever before, with the active help and participation of the United States -- in Libya, for example. Everybody knows it.

Obama is feeling the heat. Facing pressure to curb rising gas prices, Obama is calling for the U.S. to reduce its oil imports by one-third over the next decade, a lofty goal likely to run into significant obstacles. Senior administration officials say Obama will seek to reduce the U.S. dependence on foreign oil by boosting domestic energy production, offering incentives to increase the use of biofuels and natural gas, and making cars and trucks more fuel-efficient.

Don't you think that if biofuels and natural gas did the job as well or better than oil, that a free market would be demanding these fuels?

There's a reason these fuels are not in great demand. To consumers, they don't do the job required to heat their homes, run their cars and trucks, and get around life at a reasonable price. If they did, there would be profit to be made and fuel companies would be meeting the demand because of the profit motive.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Fiat Money and The Inflation Knuckleball

Innlegg Panther 31 Mar 2011, 14:55

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/economics/inflation/6351-fiat-money-and-the-inflation-knuckleball.html

31 March 2011 Michael Pento

With nothing of real or lasting value on which to anchor, the value of fiat currencies can always blow away like ashes on a windy day.

By its very definition, fiat money is something created out of thin air: the word "fiat" is Latin for "let it be done" (as in, by decree). But the convenience that such a currency system offers central bankers is paid at the expense of savers. With nothing of real or lasting value on which to anchor, the value of fiat currencies can always blow away like ashes on a windy day.

For the past 40 years or so, every country on the planet has relied on fiat money. To a very large extent, this means that the national economies are far more exposed to the whims of their central bankers than they have been in the past. So, if central bankers go off their meds, the danger to the currency becomes profound. Unfortunately, at America's Federal Reserve, it seems the inmates are now running the asylum.

We are being led to believe that falling prices are evil, and that only an increase in inflation can save our economy. From the moment the financial crisis took hold in 2008, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has looked to lower the dollar's value and cause asset prices to rise - especially in real estate. But his pitch is wildly off the mark. The Fed can't control the exact rate of inflation, nor can it direct where inflation will be distributed across the economy. In other words, inflation is like a knuckleball: once you let it loose, you're never really sure where it's going to go. And Bernanke's pitches are so wild it would make Tim Wakefield jealous.

Thus, we are seeing rising prices everywhere except where Bernanke really wants them - real estate. Data released last week shows that the median price of existing homes declined 5.2% in February compared to the previous year, to $156,100. New home prices fared even worse; the median sales price dropped to $202,100 in February, from $221,900 a year earlier - a tumble of some 9%!
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Housing Will Remain a Government Program

Innlegg Panther 02 Apr 2011, 13:04

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/housing/6354-housing-will-remain-a-government-program.html

2 April 2011 Micahel Hurd

The Administration's stated goal is to extricate itself from the US housing market, in order to make room for private investors. Unfortunately, in the current environment, nobody with half a brain is going to put their capital at risk in this sector.

Recently, the Obama Administration seemed to flash a rare sign of laissez-faire thinking when it issued a report calling for the "winding down" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two taxpayer-guaranteed institutions now responsible for backing at least 90% of the US mortgage market. In its press release, the Administration acknowledged that the private sector should be the "primary source of mortgage credit," and that their goal is to "bring private capital back to the mortgage market."

While such a "pro-market stance" is welcome, astute observers should recognize the intentions as empty rhetoric. Unfortunately, government domination of the housing sector is already a fait accompli, and any serious attempt to remove artificial support will result in the kind of political pitfalls no politician wants to face.

After decades of federal life support, the US housing market has become an invalid that is unable to fend for itself. When the absurd housing bubble finally popped in 2006, prices logically began to plummet back to earth. After national price declines of some 30%, a wave of "stimulus" dollars stopped the free-fall in mid-2009. But after less than one year of "recovery," it looks like prices are headed south again.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg Rounin 24 Apr 2011, 19:30

- Det hjalp ikke å trykke 600 milliarder dollar
USA forsøkte å sette fart på økonomien ved å starte seddelpressen. Det ser ikke ut til å ha gitt de resultatene de håpte på.

...
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg lba 24 Apr 2011, 20:17

Den hadde passet like bra i humor-tråden:-)
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg superted 24 Apr 2011, 20:23

Bare rolig, snart får vi forklaringen fra Krugman: the Fed har jo ikke trykket nok.

Edit: vi behøver ikke vente.
Paul Krugman skrev:It’s also worth remembering that Joe Gagnon’s proposal called for a much bigger effort, as well as some more explicit efforts to change expectations (and notice that all I said was that it was worth trying, not that it would surely work). So what we’ve had is a much downsized version of the policy, more than offset by other government actions — a lot like the fiscal stimulus. And we’re supposed to be surprised that it proved disappointing?
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg Hans 24 Apr 2011, 21:21

We need to print 1 trillion dollars!!

Bilde
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Raising the Roof on the National Debt

Innlegg Panther 19 Mai 2011, 16:54

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/financial-crisis/6420-raising-the-roof-on-the-national-debt.html

18 May 2011 Peter Schiff

It is for that reason I am 100% confident that Congress will do the wrong thing and raise the debt ceiling for the 75th time in 50 years. In the end there will be some kind of phony compromise with each side claiming victory.

Today the U.S. government officially borrowed beyond its $14.29 trillion statutory debt limit. And even though the Obama administration has assured us that accounting gimmickry will allow the government to borrow for another few months, the breach has given seeming urgency to Congressional negotiations to raise the debt ceiling. Republicans are making a great show of acting tough by linking their "yes" votes with promises for future budget cuts (that could even slow the rate of debt increases at some uncertain point in the future). But as we go through the process, many novice observers may wonder why we have a debt ceiling at all when our government has never shown the slightest inclination to respect its prior self-imposed limits.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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