Den økonomiske krisen i USA

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Training Wheels Off, Crash Helmets On

Innlegg Panther 24 Mai 2011, 15:32

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/financial-crisis/6426-training-wheels-off-crash-helmets-on.html

24 May 2011 Michael Pento

The high leverage that brought on the Great Recession has not been addressed in the slightest.

Based on many pronouncements by economic policy makers, reams of articles by the top financial journalists and near continuous discussion on the financial news channels, it appears that the quantitative easing juggernaut that has steamed the high seas of macroeconomics for the last three years is finally pulling into port...supposedly for the last time. According to the dominant narrative, QEI and QEII helped stabilize the economy during the Great Recession and now the Federal Reserve is ready to take the training wheels off. If so, the economy may need a helmet because there is virtually no chance that it can avoid major contractions without central banking support.

It is ironic, but there is no doubt that the proposed removal of artificial stimulus would be the best thing for the country in the long term. But very few observers understand how it will inflict short term pain. So confident is the Fed that earlier this week, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated that any notion of additional quantitative easing is off the table. In fact, he said the central bank may tighten policy in 2011 by allowing its balance sheet to shrink. Investors would do well to remember that Bullard was the first Fed official to support the second round of bond purchases now known as QEII. It is likely that he will make a similar reversal if the economy shows any signs of weakening in the months ahead.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Tax Cuts Are Not Enough To Save The Economy

Innlegg Panther 04 Jun 2011, 11:04

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/taxation/tax-cuts/6438-tax-cuts-are-not-enough-to-save-the-economy.html

3 June 2011 Michael Hurd

You cannot balance the budget without confronting Medicare and Social Security, something a few Republicans are willing to do.


Government has not (yet) destroyed the American economy, but it has hampered it to a point of outright stagnation for nearly five years now.

People are actually saying it's a good thing the economy is "stabilized," but how is America to continue to prosper if it does not economically grow?

Democrats answer that we need more socialized programs and higher taxes.

Republicans say no to those things, but they offer no alternatives other than tax cuts. In fact, they're not even proposing new tax cuts. Lately, their main answer appears to be: Balance the budget. Like tax cuts, balancing the budget is a good thing. But if you seek to balance the budget outside the context of anything else, you set yourself a trap.

You cannot balance the budget without confronting Medicare and Social Security, something a few Republicans are willing to do. Republicans incorrectly concede that everyone is entitled to Medicare and Social Security. They also, unlike Democrats, acknowledge the programs are going bankrupt. What to do? Reform them, they say. This is like giving an alcohol or cocaine-addicted relative more money. We have to look at why these programs are going bankrupt. They're running out of money because they unjustly transfer money from those making it to those who are allegedly entitled to it. They do this on the premise of, "When you're older, your turn will come." But clearly it will not, and cannot.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Undercounting the joblessness

Innlegg Panther 25 Jun 2011, 11:03

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/culture/6454-undercounting-the-joblessness.html

24 June 2011 Ralph Reiland

The U.S. job growth in May – or, more accurately, the lack of job growth – indicates that the economic “recovery” is coming undone.

With 13.9 million people in the U.S. out of work according to the federal government’s unemployment calculations (a tally that excludes those who are classified as “discouraged” workers and “involuntary part-timers,” among others), the Labor Department reported that only 54,000 jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls in May, down significantly from an average of 130,500 new jobs per month during the first four months of this year.

The number of “discouraged” workers – those who are out of work but no longer trying to get a job because they consider the prospects to be too poor – is currently 1.3 million according to the federal number crunchers, the highest number since the figures began to be tabulated in 1994.

The U.S. labor force, the total of those who are working or actively looking for work, has shrunk by 246,000 people over the past four years. Correspondingly, the labor participation rate, the percentage of the working age population that is working or seeking work, is now 64 percent, a 25-year low.

At 54,000 new jobs per month, it would take 22 years to get the unemployed 13.9 million people back to work.

Even with the economy growing at the higher rate of 130,500 new jobs per month, it would still take nine years to get the 13.9 million currently jobless workers back on the job.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Central Bankruptcy: Why QE3 is Inevitable

Innlegg Panther 25 Jun 2011, 11:04

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/economics/money/6456-central-bankruptcy-why-qe3-is-inevitable.html

24 June 2011 Michael Pento

There are many political and economic reasons why the Fed will find it extremely difficult to absorb the liquidity that it has relentlessly pumped into the economy since the beginning of the financial crisis.

As the U.S. economy seemingly limps out of the Great Recession most analysts now assume that the Federal Reserve will soon join the tide of other central banks and bring an end to the current era of unprecedented monetary expansion. Markets expect that Fed will begin withdrawing liquidity this summer, not too long after this latest round of the quantitative easing comes to an end. But this is simply a delusion.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Fed Benefits from Global Fears

Innlegg Panther 25 Jun 2011, 11:06

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/financial-crisis/6466-fed-benefits-from-global-fears.html

24 June 2011 Michael Pento

Inflation created by the unprecedented Fed monetary expansion remains hidden beneath the larger deflationary forces of a major recession.

This week, in the second in a series of less-than-impressive press conferences, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered market observers little hope that any additional quantitative easing programs are on the horizon. The Chairman continues to cling to the position that the economy is improving (with the recent "soft patch" attributable to external forces) to the extent that additional Fed support will be unnecessary. Left unsaid was any guidance as to who the Chairman believes will buy the massive amounts of Treasury debt formerly swallowed up by the QE II program?

The logical conclusion is that Bernanke believes that there will be massive private sector demand for U.S. Treasury securities. If so, how long can it be expected to last? If the economy improves, as Bernanke expects, would it not be logical to assume that private investors would direct capital to more promising sectors than ultra low yielding U.S. sovereign debt? Clearly something does not add up. Judging by the Chairman's halting delivery and sheepish demeanor, it appears as if he knows his position is untenable.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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The Extinction of Retirement

Innlegg Panther 27 Jun 2011, 08:17

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/social-security/6458-the-extinction-of-retirement.html

25 June 2011 Michael Pento

For years the essential Ponzi-like structures of Social Security and Medicare were concealed behind positive demographics. But once taxes collected from current payers fall short of the required distribution owed to current recipients, the ruse will be laid bare.

For the better part of a century the foundations for a semi-comfortable retirement for many Americans have rested on the financial pillars of rising real estate and equity prices, positive real interest rates on savings, the continued solvency of public and private pension plans, and the reliability of national entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicaid). But in the last few years, the economic sands have fundamentally shifted and these pillars are no longer sturdy, some have cracked completely. For many Americans, the traditional idea of a comfortable retirement, filled with golf carts, cruises, and fishing trips, is going the way of the dodo bird.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Hard to Take a Bone from a Dog

Innlegg Panther 27 Jun 2011, 08:23

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/social-security/6460-hard-to-take-a-bone-from-a-dog.html

26 June 2011 John Browne

As the American leadership begins to grapple with very large issues of entitlement reform in "sacred" programs such as Medicare and Social Security, many may recoil from the task once the fangs begin flashing.

Most people, provided they have a minimum of experience, know that taking a bone from a dog is a risky proposition. In terms of political power, few dogs are bigger than the American voting public. Taking away, or even threatening to take away, the major entitlements to which they have become accustomed could expose politicians to a mauling at election time. As the American leadership begins to grapple with very large issues of entitlement reform in "sacred" programs such as Medicare and Social Security, many may recoil from the task once the fangs begin flashing.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Sovereign Debt Blows Big Holes in Big Banks

Innlegg Panther 17 Jul 2011, 13:01

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/financial-crisis/6492-sovereign-debt-blows-big-holes-in-big-banks.html

16 July 2011 John Browne

Many financials should now be considered toxic assets.

The past few days have been very bad for the world's largest banks. American behemoths Citigroup and Bank of America are down about 7% each. Across the Atlantic, things are far worse. BNP Paribas, Barclays, and Banco Santander are all down 13% or more... and Société Générale is down an astounding 16%!

Some pundits warn of an overreaction and suggest this is a buying opportunity for the beat-up financials. I disagree. Rather, I think the financials should now be considered toxic assets. Caution is justified.

It was only a week ago that markets were preoccupied by a downgrade of Portuguese sovereign debt and renewed concerns that Greece will need about $100 billion by year's end to remain solvent. Now, as eyes are quickly shifting towards the first tremors of financial crisis in Italy, concerns over Greece and Portugal seem rather quaint. With an economy roughly 7 times larger than that of Greece, Italy is simply too big to bail out. Its collapse, like the sinking of a great ship, could create a vortex that drowns Europe's major banks in red ink.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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America's Politics Hits Bottom

Innlegg Panther 24 Jul 2011, 14:33

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/6500-america-s-politics-hits-bottom.html

24 July 2011 Michael Hurd

The behavior of Obama, liberal Democrats and conventional, mealy-mouthed Republicans resembles that of an addict who will not come to terms with reality.

According to nearly everyone, the downgrading in American credit is the fault of the Tea Party Republicans. "If they weren't so partisan and ideological," the conventional "wisdom" spouted by academia and the media goes, "then we wouldn't be in this mess."

Oh, really?

The reportedly probable downgrade in American credit wasn't the result of a vote in Congress. Nor was it the result of a failure of Tea Party House Republicans and the rest of the government to come up with some phony compromise. This all happened because the government has borrowed way, way more than even a prosperous USA can ever be expected to pay back. It has been a long time coming, but we finally reached the tipping point.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Cut, Cap & Balance the Budget

Innlegg Panther 25 Jul 2011, 17:15

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/6511-cut-cap-balance-the-budget.html

25 July 2011 Sylvia Bokor

Obama and his supporters continue to claim they need money for "seniors and the poor and the unemployed and the sick and the disabled and the maimed and the blind, for oppressed Haitians and Samolian's, for Afghan and Iraq politicians, for Libyan and Syrian and Egyptian rebels, and for anyone else they can dream up. But not for the American earners who produce the values that pay for it all.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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What To Do With Our Entitlement Programs?

Innlegg Panther 29 Jul 2011, 16:11

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/markets/financial-crisis/6514-what-to-do-with-our-entitlement-programs.html

29 July 2011 Amit Ghate

Even the most unrepentant spendthrift understands that these debts and liabilities are unsupportable, nor can they be solved by immorally targeting the rich. Instead, we must enact immediate, across-the-board spending cuts, with special emphasis on the biggest components of our financial wreck: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. These entitlement programs constitute the majority of our unfunded liabilities, because, despite being labeled “trusts”, they’re not actually savings plans.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg QIQrrr 02 Aug 2011, 13:41

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Børge Svanstrøm Amundsen

"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg QIQrrr 02 Aug 2011, 17:04

Cato Institute, August 1, 2011: Republicans and Democrats have come together on a “historic” budget deal that cuts federal spending by more than $2 trillion over 10 years. The Washington Post’s lead story calls the cuts “sharp” and “severe.” However, the budget deal doesn’t cut federal spending at all - Budget Deal Doesn’t Cut Spending

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Børge Svanstrøm Amundsen

"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Den økonomiske krisen i USA

Innlegg QIQrrr 06 Aug 2011, 17:28

Hot Air, August 6, 2011: If you had to rate a potential investment that had an income of, say, $22,000 a year but had costs of $37,000 per year, a standing debt of $143,000, and contracted future debt that exceeded $1 million, would you give that investment a gold-plated AAA rating and buy their bonds at the lowest interest rate possible, or at all? Of course not, but that’s exactly the fiscal situation of the US, at a 100,000,000:1 scale - Life after D-Day
Børge Svanstrøm Amundsen

"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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The Zero Growth Economy

Innlegg Panther 06 Sep 2011, 11:20

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/politics/6571-the-zero-growth-economy.html

4 September 2011 Michael Hurd

Zero growth is a good thing for socialists. This means the actualization of two things they cherish: Equalization and dependence on government handouts.
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