Keynes

Diskusjon om generelle politiske temaer, som ikke passer inn under innenriks/utenriks.

Re: Keynes

Innlegg Skatteflyktning 24 Mar 2010, 19:29

On the making of "Fear the Boom and Bust"

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/5394246
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 29 Apr 2010, 22:46

The Daily Capitalist, April 28, 2010: Here are the Obama Administration's three nominees to the Federal Reserve Board. All of the nominees are Keynesian economists. They are known as regulators, technocrats, and inflationists. They will fly through the nomination process. This will mean that Obama will have appointed four of the seven governors of the Board - Obama To Nominate Three to Federal Reserve Board
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 07 Mai 2010, 21:41

Financial Post, May 7, 2010: Stock markets went briefly into free fall yesterday due to fears of Greek "contagion," but neither the fecklessness and mendacity of the Greek government nor the unworkability of the European currency system are the real culprits. The heart of the problem is the unsustainability of the massive debts taken on by subprime governments to bail out banks and fund "stimulus" packages. Blame it on Keynesianism. The mounting global sovereign debt crisis is not somehow a coincidental misfortune that has come along in the wake of the 2008 banking crisis. It is a natural consequence of the way in which that crisis was addressed. The even bigger issue is whether the gigantic Ponzi scheme that passes for economic policy in most democratic countries -- and that is overseen by the even greater fantasies of comprehensive regulation and control by the EU, G20, or IMF -- is finally imploding, with inevitably grim consequences - Peter Foster: Keynesian contagion
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 12 Mai 2010, 21:13

Capitalism Magazine, May 5, 2010: Following World War I, Germany was crippled by the payment of the massive war reparations which forced it to print many millions of deutsche marks. The result was the notorious 'Weimar Inflation,' which at its height pushed the price of a single loaf of bread to 1 Trillion deutsche marks. In the end, many Germans fired their heating boilers with paper currency, which was cheaper than coal or wood. Gold however, held its value. As a result, its local purchasing power rose dramatically. It was said that at one point a single one-ounce gold coin could buy an entire city block of Frankfurt. While the current round of printing by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks does not yet match the relative speed and intensity undertaken in Weimar Germany, there are many indications that we are headed in that direction - Lessons for Keynes Bugs: Gold Heats Up as Athens Burns
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 26 Jun 2010, 06:51

Tiden for å be om enda mer penger er nok noe ... ugunstig:

    Newsbusters, June 25, 2010: Imagine you're representing the AFL-CIO, going on Fox News and trying to make a case that the $787-billion stimulus last year wasn't nearly enough and that more is needed, despite the prevailing argument being that Keynesian economics doesn't work based on this example. Well, Ron Blackwell - the chief economist for the AFL-CIO faced that on the June 25 broadcast of Fox News' "Your World with Neil Cavuto." Cavuto, asking some honest questions, pressed Blackwell, who was attempting to make the case for more stimulus, as to why the idea of more government spending to help the ailing economy was a legitimate one. "You're not creating the jobs, with all this money you're wanting us to spend - then why should we keep digging?" Cavuto asked. "What's wrong with saying let's put the shovel down - that's not working?" Cavuto continued to press Blackwell on his premise that it would take more of the Keynesian medicine - an idea Blackwell wasn't willing to concede was an incorrect one - Stay Classy: AFL-CIO Economist Calls FNC’s Cavuto an 'A**hole' on Live TV

Blackwell og andre keynesianere bør ikke slippe unna med å hevde at arbeidsledigheten ville vært høyere hvis staten ikke hadde pøst bøttevis med penger inn i økonomien. Sannheten er at den ville vært mindre, og Cavuto burde arrestert Blackwell bedre på dette punktet, men i alle tilfeller; keynesianerne minner mer og mer om fritt vilt:

    Reason, June 24, 2010: As Margaret Thatcher predicted, we have all run out of other people's money. We're at the tail end of the largest economic intervention since World War II, and even on its own narrow, nebulous terms, it has been a colossal failure. The failure is obvious to working people. It's obvious to unemployed people. It's obvious to kindergarteners, to dogs and cats. Only Paul Krugman persists in thinking good things will happen if we just throw more money on the barbecue - Paul Krugman Now Laughingstock On Two Continents
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 29 Jun 2010, 16:15

IBD, June 28, 2010: The world is going to hell in a handbasket, Krugman suggested this week, thanks in large part to its refusal to follow his advice to the letter. Actually, he has it exactly backward. Krugman was among those who encouraged the new Obama administration and the Democratic Congress to spend massive amounts of money early on in a kind of Keynesian frenzy to shock the moribund economy back to life. It didn't work - Krugman's Depression
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg Panther 09 Jul 2010, 16:54

http://www.capitalismmagazine.com/economics/6028-Keyness-Theory-Depression-Critique.html

Keynes's Theory of Depression: A Critique
8 July 2010 Brian Simpson


While the original Keynesian claim has been completely abandoned, the political and economic effects of those ideas are very much alive.


Conclusion

Keynes’s major errors led him to support a theory of depressions that is not valid. There are many other errors that Keynes makes. While I have by no means discussed all his errors, I have discussed enough errors of great enough severity to show that his arguments concerning depressions are invalid. Despite their invalidity, his ideas are still popular today. The ideas have changed somewhat. As I stated in the introduction, Keynesian economics gave way to neo-Keynesian economics which gave way to New Keynesian economics. In response to criticisms by A.C. Pigou Keynesians changed their claim that a fall in wages could not achieve full employment to the claim that it would take an excessive fall in wages to achieve full employment and that this would be “hopelessly disruptive” to the economy. (McKenna, 1977, pp. 220-223) Then, the neo-Keynesians, such as Paul Samuelson, abandoned this claim and embraced the claim that prices and wages were merely “sticky,” especially in the downward direction, and that it would take too long for a market economy to come out of a contraction on its own. Now, New Keynesians try to provide explanations as to why wages and prices are sticky. While the original Keynesian claim has been completely abandoned, the political and economic effects of those ideas are very much alive. The recent “stimulus packages” make that abundantly clear. These were passed in the belief that they will promote consumption. This provides an important reason why we need to understand Keynes’s ideas and expose their errors.
Ken-G. Johansen.
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 03 Aug 2010, 19:10

American Thinker, August 3, 2010: A marvelous thing happened over on Paul Krugman's blog at the New York Times last week. Krugman effectively conceded defeat on a range of economic debates. Who defeated him? People who posted comments on his New York Times blog. Mere commenters - Paul Krugman Gives Up
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 28 Apr 2011, 15:30

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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg André Risnes 29 Apr 2011, 09:42

En rap om økonomi? Jeg forventet meg en ganske flau affære, men så var den kjempebra! Jeg tror jeg tok de fleste referansene i teksten, selv om jeg bare har litt overfladisk kunnskap om konflikten mellom Keynesianerne og Østerrikerne. Jeg så den et par ganger ganger i går, og tok meg selv i å nynne på deler av sangteksten i morges :) Snakk om effektiv idéformidling.

"Creating employment is a straight forward craft
when the nation’s at war and there is a draft.
If every worker were staffed in the army and fleet
we’d have full employment and nothing to eat!"

Jeg ser etterpå at skuespillerne likner ganske mye på hovedpersonene. Keynes døde 30 å før hip-hop ble funnet opp, jeg lurer på hva han ville synes om saken.

Edit: Så dere navnene på sekundantene? Hayek hadde Say og Mises, og Keynes hadde Hicks og ... Malthus. Morsom detalj.
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg QIQrrr 30 Des 2011, 20:38

Keynes var visstnok jødehater ... via Power Line:

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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg kjetilfp 02 Feb 2012, 11:10

Om han var jødehater endrer ingenting ved hans økonomiske hypoteser. Men det er jo interessant å tenke på hvordan dette hadde blitt brukt om han hadde vært høyresidens mann og ikke venstresidens. Vi får jo til stadighet høre om Friedmans sin omgang med Pinochet og derfor skal liksom økonomisk liberalisme være fascistisk.

Forøvrig synd at Keynes døde allerede i 1946. Det er jo en mulighet for at han hadde endret sine meninger om han hadde sett hvor galt det bar av sted når politikerne skulle tolke ham, eller i det minste korrigert dem.
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg lba 02 Feb 2012, 14:52

kjetilfp skrev:Om han var jødehater endrer ingenting ved hans økonomiske hypoteser. Men det er jo interessant å tenke på hvordan dette hadde blitt brukt om han hadde vært høyresidens mann og ikke venstresidens. Vi får jo til stadighet høre om Friedmans sin omgang med Pinochet og derfor skal liksom økonomisk liberalisme være fascistisk.

Forøvrig synd at Keynes døde allerede i 1946. Det er jo en mulighet for at han hadde endret sine meninger om han hadde sett hvor galt det bar av sted når politikerne skulle tolke ham, eller i det minste korrigert dem.


I den siste artikkelen Keynes skrev før han døde advarte han mot å ta ideene hans for langt. Han så allerede da at teoriene ble brukt av politikere til å innføre langt mer omfattende tiltak enn det som ifølge hans egen teori ville være fordelaktig. Det var på 40-tallet. I dag er som kjent statlig forbruk enormt mye større enn da. Det er altså grunn til å tro at hvis Keynes levde i dag, ville han ikke ha vært "Keynesianer".
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg kjetilfp 02 Feb 2012, 15:34

Jeg må jo tilstå at jeg er utdannet økonom og har fått min dose av Keynes injisert. I ettertid ser jeg at jeg var såpass heldig at professorene presenterte de forskjellige teoriene ganske nøytralt og lot det være opp til oss å dømme hvilke som kunne forklare virkeligheten best. Jeg har derfor alltid vært kritisk til Keynes.

Jeg husker at jeg synes at multiplikator-modellen virket som svart magi. Man skal altså få ut mer enn det man putter inn ved å gå via et fordyrende mellomledd. Økonomiske modeller er veldig vanskelig å teste og derfor lever jo illusjonen om multiplikator-modellen til stadighet. Forventet multiplikator-effekt av stimulipakken til Obama skulle visst være 1,52. (Når vet du at en økonom kødder? Når han bruker desimaler.)

Men det er en økonomiprofessor som heter Valerie A. Ramey som har brukt tall fra 2. verdenskrig i USA hvor det offentlige forbruket økte enormt, for å teste multiplikatormodellen. Ikke uventet endte hun opp med ca 0,5. Altså 1 dollar økt i offentlig forbruk gir 0,5 dollar økning i brutto nasjonal produkt. Egentlig som man skulle forvente. Hun er gjest i denne podcasten: http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2011/10/ramey_on_stimul.html

For meg er keynesianisme økonomiens svar på alternativ medisin.
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Re: Keynes

Innlegg -Henrik- 02 Feb 2012, 17:21

Skal til å høre på podcast nå. Er på vei til å bli økonom selv, og har fått gjennomgå noen av modellene hans i første makrofaget, og mer blir det etterhvert. Heldigvis hadde jeg en viss formening om disse tingene før jeg begynte utdanningen, så jeg er veldig kritisk til alt i utgangspunktet.

Dette med multiplikatorprosessen høres veldig logisk ut, at en krone brukt av staten på den andre siden gir en krone i inntekt. Her trekker man selvsagt fra skatt, noe går til sparing og resten blir brukt og så videre. Dog sier jo modellene ingenting om hvor effektivt forbruket faktisk er. Altså om statens forbruk er særlig konstruktivt. Det sier jo bare at det stimulerer til økt vekst, men all vekst er ikke god vekst, og det ser vi jo på verdensøkonomien nå, hehehe. Multiplikatoren tar heller ikke hensyn til at det myndighetene bruker på en eller annen måte må komme fra privat sektor. Det er en eksogen variabel man bare tar ut av intet, heh.

Edit: Har hørt 95 % nå, og må anbefale podcasten. Utrolig interessant og lærerikt, skal joggu lete etter artiklene som blir nevnt der.
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