Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Diskusjon om økonomisk teori, forretningsvirksomhet, aksjehandel, o.l.

Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 25 Des 2009, 18:47

We're Screwed!

Fairfield Weekly, December 31, 2009

ShadowStats.com founder John Williams explains the risk of hyperinflation. Worst-case scenario? Rioting in the streets and devolution to a bartering system.

Do you believe everything the government tells you? Economist and statistician John Williams sure doesn't. Williams, who has consulted for individuals and Fortune 500 companies, now uncovers the truth behind the U.S. government's economic numbers on his Web site at ShadowStats.com. Williams says, over the last several decades, the feds have been infusing their data with optimistic biases to make the economy seem far rosier than it really is. His site reruns the numbers using the original methodology. What he found was not good.

Maymin: So we are technically bankrupt?

Williams: Yes, and when countries are in that state, what they usually do is rev up the printing presses and print the money they need to meet their obligations. And that creates inflation, hyperinflation, and makes the currency worthless.

Obama says America will go bankrupt if Congress doesn't pass the health care bill.

Well, it's going to go bankrupt if they do pass the health care bill, too, but at least he's thinking about it. He talks about it publicly, which is one thing prior administrations refused to do. Give him credit for that. But what he's setting up with this health care system will just accelerate the process.

Where are we right now?

In terms of the GDP, we are about halfway to depression level. If you look at retail sales, industrial production, we are already well into depressionary. If you look at things such as the housing industry, the new orders for durable goods we are in Great Depression territory. If we have hyperinflation, which I see coming not too far down the road, that would be so disruptive to our system that it would result in the cessation of many levels of normal economic commerce, and that would throw us into a great depression, and one worse than was seen in the 1930s.

What kind of hyperinflation are we talking about?

I am talking something like you saw with the Weimar Republic of the 1930s. There the currency became worthless enough that people used it actually as toilet paper or wallpaper. You could go to a fine restaurant and have an expensive dinner and order an expensive bottle of wine. The next morning that empty bottle of wine is worth more as scrap glass than it had been the night before filled with expensive wine.

We just saw an extreme example in Zimbabwe. ... Probably the most extreme hyperinflation that anyone has ever seen. At the same time, you still had a functioning, albeit troubled, Zimbabwe economy. How could that be? They had a workable backup system of a black market in U.S. dollars. We don't have a backup system of anything. Our system, with its heavy dependence on electronic currency, in a hyperinflation would not do well. It would probably cease to function very quickly. You could have disruptions in supply chains to food stores. The economy would devolve into something like a barter system until they came up with a replacement global currency.

What can we do to avoid hyperinflation? What if we just shut down the Fed or something like that?

We can't. The actions have already been taken to put us in it. It's beyond control. The government does put out financial statements usually in December using generally accepted accounting principles, where unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security are included in the same way as corporations account for their employee pension liabilities. And in 2008, for example, the one-year deficit was $5.1 trillion dollars. And that's instead of the $450 billion, plus or minus, that was officially reported.

Wow.

These numbers are beyond containment. Even the 2008 numbers, you can take 100 percent of people's income and corporate profit and you'd still be in deficit. There's no way you can raise enough money in taxes.

What about spending?

If you eliminated all federal expenditures except for Medicare and Social Security, you'd still be in deficit. You have to slash Social Security and Medicare. But I don't see any political will to rein in the costs the way they have to be reined in. There's just no way it can be contained. The total federal debt and net present value of the unfunded liabilities right now totals about $75 trillion. That's five times the level of GDP.

What can we, the people, do to stop the government from, you know, taking all our money?

We should have acted 20 years ago. There's not much you can do at this point to prevent the eventual debasement of the dollar. This involves both sides of the political spectrum. It's not limited to the Republicans or the Democrats. They've both been very active in setting this up.

What can individuals do?

The only thing individuals can do now is look to protect themselves. I wish I could see a way, but shy of severe slashing of the social programs that is so politically reprehensible and would create such problems and social unrest, I don't see that as a practical solution.

If you're a young 20- or 25-year-old guy or gal, would you move to another country? What would you do?

We still have a great country. We're going through a period of economic pain. It's happened before. This is the kind of thing that's taken us decades to get into and it will take us decades to get out. Although the hyperinflation is going to be limited largely to the U.S., the economic downturn will affect things globally. I can't tell you how things will go with a hyperinflationary Great Depression, which is where I see things going.

It's the type of thing that will tend to lead to significant political change. People tend to vote their pocketbooks. You could have the rise of a third party. You could even have rioting in the streets. I'm not formally predicting that — anyone can run these different scenarios. For the individual, what you need to do, from an investment standpoint, look to preserve your wealth and assets. Don't worry about the day-to-day fluctuations in the markets. What I'm talking about here is over the long haul...

[Gold is] going to be highly volatile, as will the dollar, over the near term, but longer term, physical gold I would look at as a primary hedge for preserving the purchasing power of your wealth and assets. Maybe some physical silver. Get some assets outside the U.S. dollar. I might even look to move some assets physically outside the United States. The key here is to look at a longer range survival package, battening down the hatches, and preserving your wealth and assets during a very difficult time. Once you're through that, you'll have some extraordinary investment opportunities, and I can't tell you what it's going to be like on the other side of this crisis.
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 26 Des 2009, 15:01

Times Online, December 26, 2009: Yukio Hatoyama, the new Japanese Prime Minister, has stunned a nation already mired in huge public debt by unveiling the country’s biggest ever postwar budget: a 92.3 trillion yen (£630 billion) spending spree aimed at “saving people’s lives”. The unprecedented budget, which supposedly shifts Japan’s fiscal spending focus “from concrete to lives”, comes amid rising concern about the solidity of sovereign debt in the world’s second-largest economy. The new budget will require additional debt issuance of Y44.3 trillion — within the Government’s expected band, but still at a level that will raise Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio to nearly 195 per cent. Of foremost concern, analysts for Nomura said, is that Japanese tax revenues are expected to fall to Y37.40 trillion this year, the lowest that they have been since 1984. It was, analysts said, a watershed moment — the first time that new debt issuance has exceeded tax revenues since the Second World War. Mr Hatoyama said: “We were just able to stay at a level in which we can maintain fiscal discipline.” Mr Hatoyama swept to power in August with grand promises that the era of wasteful public spending would end - Debt-laden Japan shocked by £630bn spree to ‘save lives’
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 04 Jan 2010, 06:10

Bloomberg, January 4, 2010: Japan’s Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, swept to power by a public seeking an end to economic and political stagnation, is failing to arrest the nation’s decline. Japanese gross domestic product shrank to an annualized 471 trillion yen ($5 trillion) in the third quarter, without accounting for changes in prices, the lowest level since 1991. The tumble is unprecedented among the biggest economies since the 1930s, according to Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. As a result of the contraction, the Finance Ministry projects tax revenue this year will drop to a quarter-century low. Hatoyama’s 2010 budget, released Dec. 25, does nothing to rein in record deficits that threaten Japan’s Aa2 rating, said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. It avoided consumption-tax increases or deregulation to boost productivity; without policy changes, deflation and a shrinking population risk eroding the savings pool restraining Japan’s bond yields. “Japan’s fiscal conditions are close to a melting point,” said Takeshi Fujimaki, a former adviser to billionaire investor George Soros and now president of Fujimaki Japan, an investment advising company in Tokyo. “My biggest concern is whether the Japanese government will be able to sell all the bonds at auctions,” he said, adding that such failures might send 10- year note yields climbing through 2.4 percent - Japan Return to '91 GDP Gives Markets Mega Risk Crisis
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 05 Jan 2010, 15:56

Bloomberg, January 5, 2010: Greece may borrow privately through banks by the end of January. The decision on whether to use a private placement will depend on reaction to the country’s stability and growth program, Spyros Papanicolaou, the managing director of Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency, said today. The country had earlier considered offering bonds through a syndicate of banks. “We are yet to decide whether to go ahead with a syndication,” Papanicolaou said today in a telephone interview from Athens. “We might do a private placement instead. It will depend on how the stability and growth program is received by the European Commission and the markets.” In private placements, issuers offer securities directly to chosen investors rather than sell them through an auction or via a group of banks in a syndicate, reducing the risk that inadequate demand will drive up borrowing costs. Concern that some countries may struggle to pay their debt was reignited after Dubai’s state-owned Dubai World said on Dec. 1 it wanted to restructure $26 billion of debt. The premium, or spread, investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds instead of German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government securities, rose to a 10-month high of 277 basis points in December. It narrowed 11 basis points to 222 basis points today. Greece plans to sell 54 billion euros of debt this year, Spyros said. That compares with 67 billion euros in 2009, including the 2 billion euros offered via the private placement, according to debt agency data. Credit-default swaps on Greece dropped 19.5 basis points to 260.5, the lowest since Dec. 16, according to CMA DataVision prices at 11:40 a.m. in London. That means it costs $260,500 a year to protect $10 million of the nation’s bonds from default for five years - Greece May Borrow Privately Through Banks This Month
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 06 Jan 2010, 06:01

Financial Times, January 4, 2010: The US public pension system faces a higher-than-expected shortfall of more than $2,000bn that will increase pressure on many states’ strained finances and crimp economic growth, according to the chairman of New Jersey’s pension fund. The estimate by Orin Kramer will fuel investors’ concerns over the deteriorating financial health of US states after the recession [after?]. “State and local governments are correctly perceived to be in serious difficulty,” Mr Kramer told the Financial Times. “If you factor in the reality of these unfunded promises, their deficits will rise exponentially.” Estimates of aggregate funding requirement of the US pension system have ranged between $400bn and $500bn, but Mr Kramer’s analysis concluded that public funds would need to find more than $2,000bn to meet future pension obligations. A shortfall of that size could force state governments to take unpalatable decisions such as pouring more public money into their funds or reducing pension benefits - US public pensions face $2,000bn deficit

Zero Hedge, January 5, 2010: On December 24, the Senate passed a vote by a razor thin margin (with not a vote to spare) to raise the Federal debt ceiling from $12,104 billion to $12,394 billion. The actual debt ceiling increase took effect on December 28. [...] the Treasury's cash flow projections were spot on: 3 days later, and the debt subject to limit surged to $12,254, a jump of over $200 billion in 2 days, and a whopping $150 billion over the old debt ceiling. Three days is all the buffer the administration's reckless spending spree has afforded this country to avoid bankruptcy. Had one more Democratic vote dissented from the stopgap measure, the US would now be in technical default. There is just $140 billion left before the revised debt ceiling is breached. We hope for the country's sake that Bill refunding in January is massive, because as we already pointed out, on January 7th we expect another ~$130 of new Treasuries to be announced for auction by January 15th. And then there are two more weeks in January... Which is why the Treasury better be using that TARP money to pay down all it can, because if the general population understands how close this nation was to the fiscal brink, many more answers may be demanded out of the ruling party as to how it could allow things to get so out of hand - US Avoids Technical Default By Three Days

Zero Hedge, January 5, 2010: A week ago we presented the observations of TrimTabs' Charles Biderman, who laid out a logical case for why there is significant circumstantial evidence that the Fed is manipulating markets by purchasing index futures in the aftermarket: "One way to manipulate the stock market would be for the Fed or the Treasury to buy $20 billion, plus or minus, of S&P 500 stock futures each month for a year. Depending on margin levels, $20 billion per month would translate into at least $100 billion in notional buying power...This type of intervention could explain some of the unusual market action in recent months, with stock prices grinding higher on low volume even as companies sold huge amounts of new shares and retail investors stayed on the sidelines. For example, Tyler Durden of ZeroHedge has pointed out that virtually all of the market’s upside since mid-September has come from after-hours S&P 500 futures activity." Today MarketWatch has an open appeal to the Fed to put Biderman's allegation to rest by publicly disproving that it is involved in any direct market manipulation - MarketWatch Calls Out Fed To Disprove It Is Manipulating Index Futures

The Daily Telegraph, January 5, 2010: Fears that Britain may be heading for its first sovereign debt crisis since the 1970s hit a new intensity after Pimco, the world's biggest bond house, declared that it is starting to sell off its holdings of gilts. The American investment group said it will be a net seller of UK Government bonds this year, at the very point when the Bank of England brings its £200bn programme of purchases to and end and the Treasury attempts to raise unprecedented sums through the capital markets. The move is doubly embarrassing for the Government because the head of Pimco's European investment team is Andrew Balls, brother of Schools Secretary Ed Balls, who is mastering the Government's re-election strategy. The move will be seen as a financial vote of no-confidence in the Government's handling of the economy. Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pimco, said: "We are currently cutting back in the US and UK because... supply and demand dynamics are likely to be negatively affected as borrowing rises and central bank buying declines" - Pimco move to sell gilts raises spectre of a UK sovereign debt crisis

Independent.ie, January 5, 2010: The [Irish] Government's strategy to climb out of recession was rubbished on Tuesday as figures showed the country is almost 25 billion euro in the red. Statistics released by Finance Minister Brian Lenihan show the tax take plummeted by nearly 20% last year - down to its lowest level since 2003. With public spending at more 47 billion euro, the Exchequer needed to borrow a massive 24.6 billion just to keep the country afloat. Highlighting the few positives in the latest official figures, Mr Lenihan insisted public debt was not as bad as he predicted in December's Budget. [...] Labour deputy leader and finance spokeswoman Joan Burton said the figures showed Ireland remained in the grip of one of the worst recessions in an industrialised economy since the Second World War - Debt level rockets to 25bn euro
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 06 Jan 2010, 20:32

The Globe and Mail, January 6, 2010: Argentine President Cristina Fernandez tried to force out the country's central bank chief Wednesday in a row over using billions of dollars in foreign currency reserves to pay rising debt obligations. Martin Redrado, who said he would not step down unless Congress backed his resignation, has balked at handing over $6.6-billion (U.S.) in reserves despite a presidential order to use them to service debt at a time of a rising fiscal deficit. Argentina's bonds, currency and stocks all fell on the news, which increases political uncertainty at a time when the country has tried to assure investors it is ready to return to global bond markets with a new debt issue eight years after its massive sovereign default. “Redrado has led the Central Bank and today that role is over,” Economy Minister Amado Boudou told a news conference. Mr. Boudou said the president did not have to go to Congress to remove Redrado because she was just accepting his previous offers to resign whenever she wanted. Mario Blejer, an economist and former central bank head, has been designated to replace Mr. Redrado, Mr. Boudou said. Cabinet chief Anibal Fernandez said the government could go to the courts to force Mr. Redrado out. The peso weakened 0.26 per cent to 3.81 per U.S. dollar, on the news. The benchmark MerVal stock index slid 1.7 per cent and government bonds traded locally were off 0.8 per cent on average. Traders said markets read the president's attempt to push out Mr. Redrado as a sign of desperation as the government seeks funds for debt payments - Argentina tries to oust central bank chief
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 07 Jan 2010, 08:29

Her er det bare å finne frem popkorn og godstol:
Inflation May be the Next Dragon to Slay

The Regional Economist, St. Louis Fed, January 2010

Foremost among the concerns of many is how to design a strategy that does not on the one hand raise interest rates prematurely, thereby prematurely nipping the economic recovery in the bud, while on the other hand does not keep rates too low for too long, thereby creating conditions that lead to a surge in inflation or inflation expectations. What’s needed is an effective policy to prevent the unprecedented monetary stimulus from becoming a destabilizing influence on price stability.
...
From fiscal year 2002 to 2008, the U.S. federal budget deficit averaged about $305 billion per year, or 2.5 percent of GDP. In fiscal year 2009, though, the federal deficit totaled about $1.5 trillion, or roughly 11.25 percent of GDP, according to estimates by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The large increase in the deficit reflected legislative policy actions such as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (fiscal stimulus) and the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), as well as an increase in mandatory government outlays associated with the deep recession. The CBO projects that the federal budget deficit will total nearly $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2010 and nearly $925 billion in fiscal year 2011. Gauging the deficit’s potential effect on inflation depends on how it is financed. To see this, consider the government’s budget constraint. In its simplest form, the constraint stipulates that if the deficit is not financed by higher taxes, it must be financed in one of two ways: (i) by issuing debt to the public, which includes foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities [her er det ikke mye å hente]; or (ii) by selling government debt to the central bank, which is the Federal Reserve. The latter, also called monetization of the debt, increases the monetary base (high-powered money) and, thus, the money supply.
...
A key difference between the 2003-04 episode—when the Fed held its federal funds interest rate target at 1 percent from June 2003 to June 2004—and today is that the FOMC has used innovative measures to dramatically expand the size of its balance sheet. Because this expansion in the monetary base has the potential to greatly expand the nation’s money supply when economic activity rebounds, policymakers are, thus, confronted with the potential problem of designing an effective policy to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet to prevent a rapid acceleration in money growth that may destabilize inflation expectations. Improving economic and financial conditions have lessened the use of the Fed’s special lending facilities; so, some portion of these excess reserves will naturally contract on their own. Still, this process will not be sufficient to prevent a potentially destabilizing surge in money growth, which means that Fed policymakers will have to adopt other, more aggressive strategies.
...
The officials have discussed several methods of doing this, including paying interest on bank reserves, using conventional open market operations and selling outright some of the securities and other assets held on the Fed’s balance sheet. Regardless of the method used, an improving economy means that the Fed must be prepared to raise its interest rate target to prevent an unwanted expansion in money growth by the banking sector. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other senior Fed officials are quite confident that they have the tools and the determination necessary to prevent an unwelcome acceleration in inflation or inflation expectations. Unlike previous episodes, though, the magnitude of the policy responses to the financial crisis and the Great Recession suggests that the FOMC’s margin of error seems much smaller than at any time in the Fed’s history.

Mer her.

Zero Hedge, January 7, 2009: As part of the Barney Frank proposed Manager's Amendment, which will accompany HR4173, the "Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009", are three little-noticed rules that, if adopted, will make shorting stocks if not impossible, then extremely problematic and difficult - In Order To Make The Ponzi Market Keep Going Ever Higher, Barney Frank Tries To Make Shorting Virtually Impossible
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 07 Jan 2010, 10:23

KyivPost, January 7, 2010: Ukrainian leaders doing battle for the presidency in the coming weeks will face an even more daunting task once in power -- a shattered economy, depleted state coffers and the prospect of default. In short, they will have to deal with a year worse than 2009 -- when analysts said Ukraine's bankruptcy was imminent. It wasn't -- despite the suspension of a $16.4 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund -- but the economy shrank by up to 15 percent, one of the worst in Europe. Lying on the doorstep of the European Union, the nation of 46 million that is among the world's top ten providers of grain and steel, will hold its first presidential election since the 2004 "Orange" Revolution promised Western-style reforms. "No matter who wins the election, the new president will face a heavy task," said analysts at Expert Rating, a Ukrainian ratings agency. The authorities would have to take control of the stretched state finances, hammered by overspending in the election year, depleted of tax revenues and still missing the IMF's billions. "One solution to the prevailing situation would be a declaration of state default on (domestic) debt and its subsequent restructuring," Expert Rating continued. Whoever wins, most expect Central Bank Chairman Volodymyr Stelmakh to go, for his successor to be subject to horse trading and then to play a key role by agreeing, or not, to bankroll government finances, which will be totally squeezed by April. The drop in steel and chemical exports affected not just business and employment but government tax revenues and the hryvnia currency through a dramatic fall in dollar earnings. The hryvnia has traded at almost half its 2008 peak of 4.5 per dollar for most of this year. Ukrainians are unable to pay back dollar loans at such a rate, shaking the banking sector to the core. The government has found creative ways to pay debts, wages and gas bills to Russia -- vital to avoid rows similar to one in January 2009 when Moscow eventually cut supplies to Europe. Analysts and officials say hundreds of millions of dollars in gas bills and other obligations were paid through the issue of expensive short-term T-bills bought by the central bank with printed money. "Despite the economy's slide into a severe recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, the authorities failed to adjust policy accordingly," Raiffeisen Bank analyst Dmitry Sologoub said. "As a result, a full-scale fiscal disaster is under way," he said, adding the bank estimates the 2009 budget gap at 9-10 percent, against 1.3 percent in 2008. Analysts are in particular worried about 3.7 billion hryvnia ($463 million) worth of T-bills maturing in April alone. Some note the central bank is a majority owner of the debt -- compared to owning less than 1 percent at the start of 2008, and so any decision to reschedule repayment would be easy to reach. Meanwhile, several analysts think a Eurobond issue is on the cards early this year if the IMF fails to come back quickly, though others argue that no one would want to invest in Ukraine before the political dust settles - Analysis: Ukraine faces even tougher year after election

RTTNews, January 7, 2010: Germany's Federal Statistical Office announced that the retail sales in real terms dropped a seasonally and calender adjusted 1.1% month-on-month in November, compared to a flat reading in October, revised from 0.5% growth estimated initially. Economists expected an increase of 0.3%. Year-on-year, retail sales decreased 2.8% in November, faster than the 1.6% fall in October, revised from 1.7% drop estimated initially. Economists were looking for a decline of 1.7%. For the January to November period, retail sales dropped 1.8% compared to the same period of the previous year. In nominal terms, retail sales dropped a seasonally and calender adjusted 1.2% month-on-month in November, after a flat reading in October. On an annual basis, retail sales dropped 3.1%, faster than the 2.4% decline in October. For the first eleven months of the year, retail sales slipped 2.6% over a year ago - German Retail Sales Decline In November
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 08 Jan 2010, 05:47

Bloomberg, January 7, 2010: U.S. state tax collections fell the most in 46 years in the first three quarters of 2009 as the recession shrank revenue from sources including personal income, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government said. Revenue dropped 13.3 percent, or $80 billion, compared with the same nine months of 2008, to $523 billion. Collections in the third quarter alone sank 10.9 percent to about $162 billion. It was the fourth straight quarterly decline. “The first three quarters of 2009 were the worst on record for states in terms of the decline in overall state tax collections, as well as the change in personal income and sales tax collections,” Rockefeller analysts Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd wrote in the report. The worst economic slump since the Great Depression has forced states to cut spending, raise taxes and pass down costs to local governments to cope with $193 billion of combined budget deficits in the current fiscal year, according to a Center on Budget and Policy Priorities report issued last month. Budget gaps have opened in 31 states since fiscal year 2010 began, Dadayan and Boyd wrote, citing a National Conference of State Legislatures study. “2010 is going to be very difficult for the states and the next year is likely to be significantly worse,” Rockefeller Deputy Director Robert Ward said - State Tax Revenue in U.S. Drops Most Since 1963, Study Says
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 09 Jan 2010, 05:07

The Gov Monitor, January 8, 2010: U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said on Friday a newly created interagency task force was focusing on financial fraud and targeting for possible prosecution bankers whose actions contributed to the financial crisis. Holder said the task force, which was created by President Barack Obama in November and met for the first time last month, would focus on fraud in mortgages, securities, economic stimulus programs and government bailouts. He said the Justice Department and the task force also were investigating banks and other financial institutions whose failure to follow laws and regulations were in part to blame for the most serious financial crisis the United States has faced since the Great Depression - Bankers Who Contributed To Financial Crisis May Face Prosecution

The Daily Telegraph, January 8, 2010: Expert investor Neil Woodford has warned that the UK economy is "not out of the woods" and advised against buying banking stocks. The head of leading fund manager Invesco Perpetual added, in an interview on the group's website, that there was a "decent chance" that the UK would lose it AAA credit rating because of high government spending. “I don’t believe we have the ingredients for a stable economic recovery,” he said. “The banking crisis is likely to be very long and drawn out.” A downgrade by ratings agency wass inevitable, said Mr Woodford, unless the Government cut spending and increased taxes. "It is more likely now than it ever has been. I would argue that there is a relatively high probability of at least a decent chance we will be downgraded almost certainly if we don't deal properly with the deficit. "It would be pretty tough for the economy. It would mean we pay more for our borrowing, it would make the deficit more expensive and increase the pain of the economy" - UK economy likely to be downgraded

Bloomberg, January 8, 2010: Switzerland’s financial markets regulator broke the law when it ordered UBS AG to give data on 255 of the bank’s clients to the U.S. last year, a court ruled. The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority, known as Finma, exceeded its authority when it told the bank Feb. 18 to deliver the information to the U.S., the Federal Administrative Court in Bern ruled today. The case is separate from a larger agreement made in August to turn over data on as many as 4,450 UBS accounts. “This decision focuses on customers whose details were transferred before the U.S. and Switzerland entered into the new treaty,” said Walter Frei, a lawyer who represents clients among the 4,450. “Based on this decision, I don’t think that we can foresee a positive effect for the other cases.” Finma ordered UBS to hand over customer information so the bank could avoid criminal prosecution in the U.S., which may have led to the bank’s insolvency, according to the regulator. The Justice Department accused UBS of conspiring to defraud the U.S. by helping Americans hide accounts from the Internal Revenue Service. The five judges rejected Finma’s argument that action was needed to prevent the bank’s insolvency and ensure the stability of the Swiss financial system. The government and the parliament are the only institutions with the authority to implement state of emergency laws, the judges said in their 60-page ruling - Swiss Regulator Broke Law on UBS Client Disclosure

Bloomberg, January 8, 2010: Europe’s unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 10 percent, the highest in more than 11 years, as companies cut costs in the wake of the worst recession in more than six decades. November’s euro area jobless rate rose from a revised 9.9 percent in October, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since August 1998 - Europe’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Hits 11-Year High
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 10 Jan 2010, 05:41

The Wall Street Journal, January 9, 2010: A federal judge blocked President Cristina Kirchner from using foreign-currency reserves to pay Argentina's national debt and revoked her dismissal of the central-bank chief who opposed that policy. The twin legal defeats for the government injected further uncertainty in the battle for control of the central-bank reserves. The dispute, which has put Argentina on the verge of a constitutional crisis and placed the president and the opposition-controlled Congress at loggerheads, led to a selloff in the country's bond and stock markets. On Friday morning, federal judge Maria Jose Sarmiento granted an injunction request by two opposition parties barring the central bank from transferring money into the so-called Bicentennial Fund, which Mrs. Kirchner had hoped to create with $6.57 billion from the reserves. A few hours later, Judge Sarmiento ordered the reinstatement of the bank president, Martín Redrado, whom Mrs. Kirchner dismissed on Thursday for refusing to make the transfer. The Kirchner administration said it will appeal the two decisions. Argentine television showed Mr. Redrado returning to the bank Friday afternoon. Earlier in the day he defended his action in defying Mrs. Kirchner. "The reserves belong to all Argentines and if they are to be used for some purpose besides backing the currency, the matter should go before Congress," he said - Court Reinstates Fired Central-Bank Chief
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Innlegg QIQrrr 12 Jan 2010, 12:49

Mail Online, January 11, 2010: Up to 9,000 bankers could leave London in protest at the controversial and 'ill thought out' tax raid on their bonuses, the Mayor Boris Johnson warned yesterday. He raised his fears they will quit the capital because of the 50 per cent tax on bonuses over £25,000, which he slammed as 'short-sighted'. Mr Johnson threw down the gauntlet to Shadow Chancellor George Osborne to rule out extending the fiscal grab, which is meant to last for only one year. The Tories have no plans to dump the supertax, which could be worth up to £5billion to Britain's embattled public finances. But Mr Johnson, a former Tory MP, said the tax raid on bankers threatens the capital's status as one of the financial capitals of the world - 9,000 bankers could leave city

DSNews.com, January 11, 2010: One in every 7.5 homeowners with a mortgage in the United States is either behind on their payments or in foreclosure, according to new data released by Lender Processing Services (LPS) Monday. That equates to a record high 13.2 percent of the nation’s home loans. LPS’ December Mortgage Monitor report, which analyzes 40 million residential mortgages across the spectrum of credit products, paints a dismal picture of loan performance. Total delinquencies, excluding foreclosures, increased to a record high 9.97 percent as of November 30, 2009. That represents a month-over-month increase of 5.46 percent and a year-over-year increase of 21.29 percent. Loans rolling to a more delinquent status totaled 5.01 percent, compared to just 1.52 percent of loans that improved. Of loans that were current in December 2008, 4.37 percent were either 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure by the end of November 2009, a rate higher than any other year for the same period, LPS said - Non-Current Mortgages Hit Record High 13.2%

Chicago Tribune, January 11, 2010: The state [Illinois] owes local school districts $1 billion. Universities and community colleges are owed $775 million. Municipalities are waiting on $478 million. Some state workers are being asked to pay up front for medical care because their boss isn't paying his bills on time. "I've never seen anything like this," said Fred Giertz, a University of Illinois professor of economics. "In the past, sometimes there would be cutbacks and austerity and so on, but the state (in prior crises) would pay most of what it promised." There just is not enough money to pass around - State's unpaid bills hit a record $5 billion

Reuters, January 12, 2010: The European Commission is likely to launch infringement proceedings against Greece for failing to provide reliable statistics on its budget deficit and debt, an EU source with knowledge of the proceedings said on Tuesday. The Commission, the European Union's executive arm, is responsible for upholding EU law. It had already once launched proceedings against Greece for unreliable deficit statistics in 2004, but closed them in 2007. "There will probably be another infringement procedure because providing timely and reliable statistics is an obligation under EU law and they have failed in their obligation," the EU source said. Greece revised its 2008 budget deficit to 7.7 percent of gross domestic product from 5.0 percent reported in April and also revised its 2009 budget deficit forecast to more than 12 percent of GDP from 3.7 percent forecast in April. A Commission report officially released by the EU's statistics office Eurostat on Tuesday underlined reservations about past Greek data, saying Eurostat had questioned figures five times between 2005 and 2009 - EU exec likely to sue Greece over statistics mess

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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 13 Jan 2010, 10:40

Global Finance, January 12, 2010: Argentina's central bank will appeal a decision by a U.S. court to embargo an account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a central bank official said Tuesday. Central Bank Governor Martin Redrado has instructed its lawyers at New York-based Sullivan and Cromwell LLP to present the appeal Wednesday morning, the official said. U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa earlier embargoed the account based on a decree signed in December by President Cristina Fernandez, which allowed the government to settle debts using central bank reserves. The ruling, which targeted one trading account at the New York Fed, "clearly mentioned" the decree, the official said. Investors holding bonds which the government stopped paying during a major economic crisis in 2001 and 2002 had argued that the decree proved the central bank was part of the Treasury, something which the government has in the past successfully refuted. Those investors refused to participate in a 2005 debt restructuring and have continued to pursue their claims through the courts, but so far they've been unable to seize any cash. On Tuesday, Economy Minister Amado Boudou said the court had embargoed $1.7 million, but that the Total could be for up to $15 million. The minister said previous embargoes had been overturned on appeal. Despite the small amount, analysts said the precedent could open the way for further claims. It could also derail the government's plans to use central bank reserves to transfer $6.6 billion of the central bank's $48 billion reserves to make debt payments due this year. A clerk in Judge Griesa's office said details of Tuesday's conference would be published later in the evening - Argentina's Central Bank To Appeal New York Court Embargo
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 25 Jan 2010, 22:30

The Journal of Commerse, January 22, 2010: USA: Shipments of commercial trailers hit a 32-year low in December while reaching their highest point in 2009, said ACT Research. At 8,296 units, shipments of trailers used to haul freight were off 44 percent from December 2008. Trailer shipments haven’t been so low since the trucking industry was regulated and P-I-E was hauling freight. That’s a sign of the extent of excess trailer capacity at the end of the worst year in shipping since the Great Depression. In its latest report on the trailer market, ACT said trailer factory shipments in almost every equipment category posted the lowest levels in 30 to 50 years in December, with only the refrigerated trailer segment holding up “relatively well” - Trailer Shipments Hit 32-Year Low

The Wall Street Journal, January 25, 2010: The struggle for control of Argentina's stockpile of foreign currency took a new twist as the country's dissident central-bank president was barred from entering the bank late Sunday by police posted at the door by the government. The government's latest effort to oust bank president Martin Redrado followed a two-pronged appellate-court decision late Friday that left Mr. Redrado's status in doubt, while also dealing another blow to the government's plan to use several billion dollars in central-bank reserves to pay foreign debt. President Cristina Kirchner's leftist government was scrambling to come up with alternative strategies for laying hold of funds so it can increase politically popular spending ahead of 2011 elections. The Kirchner government is desperate for resources to bolster its faltering popularity ahead of 2011 presidential elections, analysts say. The Argentine dispute is one of several battles over central-bank independence playing out in various countries in the aftermath of the world financial crisis, though in no other country has the dispute over central-bank autonomy taken such bizarre twists. In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has faced opposition to being confirmed for a second term amid populist anger over the rescue of companies such as American International Group. In South Korea, the government sent a political official to a central-bank policy meeting for the first time in a decade. In Japan, government officials have bluntly targeted the central bank for criticism and policy suggestions. "As part of the general economic and financial meltdown of the last few years, the 'isolated' nature of central banks is being questioned," notes Johns Hopkins political scientist Riordan Roett - New Twist in Argentine Currency Fight
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg Skatteflyktning 26 Jan 2010, 02:47

Shh, ikke si det til noen men tror vi er paa vei inn i "double-dip".

Sjekk trykkemaskinen til The Fed, har visst gaatt i staa!
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