Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Diskusjon om økonomisk teori, forretningsvirksomhet, aksjehandel, o.l.

Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg Skatteflyktning 30 Jan 2010, 04:05

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?cha ... ar&s_1=1&s[1][id]=MZM&s[1][vintage_date]=2010-01-22

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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 01 Feb 2010, 07:12

The Guardian, January 31, 2010: Talks to resolve a crippling three-week tractor blockade of highways and border crossings in Greece by farmers collapsed today, increasing the pressure on a government grappling with the country's worst financial crisis in decades. The farmers refused to back down in the row, which is seen as a crucial test of Athens' determination to impose austerity measures that will salvage Europe's most indebted economy. Tonight, the Greek agriculture minister, Katerina Batzeli, signalled that while she remained "open to dialogue", the government was in no position to meet their demands for some €1bn (£867m) in extra subsidies and tax breaks. "The government is determined to get the country out of the crisis," she said. "It can't afford the money they are asking for." The blockade, which is believed to cost €25m a day, has disrupted transport, damaged commerce and strained relations with neighbouring Bulgaria, where exports have also been hard hit. The activist farmers, who have appealed to resume marathon negotiations with Batzeli today, have barricaded some 23 highway junctions across northern and central Greece with their tractors. Last week, they stepped up their "battle for survival" by marching in their thousands through Athens. Condemned by Greeks, the confrontation has put the socialists – traditionally an ally of farmers – on a war footing with the subsidy-dependent sector - Greek economic crisis worsens with farmers refusing to back down


    Bilde
    A historical comparison: The debt of Russia and Argentina before their
    default, the debt of Greece, Portugal, Ireland now (H/T: Bastian Hayek)
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 02 Feb 2010, 19:50

Zero Hedge, February 2, 2010: It appears not even one day can pass without some new and improved indication of Greece's economic collapse. The latest comes from website Kathimerini.gr which discloses that the recently appointed "Committee on the Reliability Of Statistics" has uncovered $40 billion of previously hidden debt. Greek CDS has immediately gapped on the news of yet another hole that will need plugging with ever more debt. At last check Greece was trading 380/390 and pushing wider. One wonders at what point will investors realize that the deeper they dig, the more dirt they will uncover - Greece "Discovers" $40 Billion Of Previously Unknown Debt, CDS Gaps

Reuters, February 2, 2010: Cafes, shops and taxis around Athens are handing out receipts by the thousands to customers frantically stuffing their pockets with proof of payment for anything from a glass of ouzo to a family Sunday lunch. Business has not suddenly turned good in recession-hit Greece, but people are clamoring for receipts after the government announced in December they would be required to claim a standard income tax-free allowance that was previously granted automatically. "People demand receipts like never before," said Yannis Lazos, 40, who runs a clothes shop in central Athens. "I can see it in their eyes, they think: 'I want my money back, I want to be taxed less'. These are difficult days, it's the crisis." Under pressure from bond markets, rating agencies and the European Union to get its fiscal house in order, the government hopes the receipt collection plan will help it fight endemic tax evasion as it scrambles for resources to plug a huge budget gap. The aim is to use ordinary citizens to flush out Greece's tentacular black economy, estimated to amount to at least a third of the official, 250 billion euro ($351 billion) gross domestic product, by making them demand legal proof of payment. No one knows quite how, or indeed whether, the new system will work since the government has yet to announce details. Accountants say the idea will merely add another layer of red tape in a country drowning in bureaucracy - Crisis-hit Greeks scramble for tax receipts

BBC News, February 2, 2010: There is a sense in Athens of a key moment arriving over its debt crisis. The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, is trying to meet the leaders of all the main political parties. There is an expectation that he'll talk to the Greek people, possibly as early as tonight. He is expected to outline what austerity measures will be needed to restore international confidence in Greece's ability to pay off its debts and reduce its deficit. This is a delicate balancing act for the Greek government. On the one hand it has to convince sceptical markets that it is serious about paring down the deficit; on the other hand, public sector unions are planning strikes next week to oppose any cuts. Doctors, nurses, teachers, civil servants and metal and textile workers are preparing to walk out. Even the tax collectors may strike - EU spotlight on Greek woes
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 07 Feb 2010, 22:36

Zero Hedge, February 7, 2010: Remember the proverbial run on the bank? Well, that was the norm (or rather the outlier) before governments decided to backstop entire financial industries residing within their territory. As a result, the post-Lehman version of "the bank run" will henceforth be referred to as "the country run" and for an example of one in practice, look no further than Greece. The Guardian reports that investors have pulled a stunning €8-10 billion since the Greek crisis commenced in earnest last November. If true, this is the beginning of the end for the troubled EMU-member country - The Run On Greece Is Here
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 20 Feb 2010, 05:22

Business Insider, February 19, 2010: It's now well known that Eurostat accounting rules allowed Greece to keep billions in debt-like obligations off its books. But just how much debt does Greece have? The official estimate is €270 billion or $366 billion now that the hidden debt has been brought back on to the books. But a management consultant in Greece says there a huge liabilities not yet accounted for. His jaw dropping estimate: Greece may have as much as €55 billion that remains "off-the-books." This number has been widely discussed in the Greek press, although it hasn't gotten much attention in the English language media - Yow! Greece May Have $75 Billion More Of Debt Hidden Off Its Books

Morning Star, February 19, 2010: Greece faces a growing fuel shortage as a customs workers' strike halts the flow of petrol into the country. The shortage was the first serious consequence of growing labour protests against the government's emergency spending cuts programme. Customs workers have extended their strike against wage freezes and bonus cuts until next Wednesday, when unions across Greece will hold a general strike that is set to bring the country to a standstill. "We would consider cutting the 14th salary to be an act of war," said trade union umbrella group GSEE leader Yiannis Papagopoulos - Pumps run dry as Greece walk out

Bilde
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 24 Feb 2010, 21:21

MarketWatch, February 23, 2010: More than 11.3 million homeowners -- nearly one-fourth of all Americans with a mortgage -- owe more on their loan than their home is now worth, according to a report released Tuesday by FirstAmerican CoreLogic. More than 10% of people with mortgages owe 25% more than their home is worth. The number of underwater mortgages increased by about 620,000 from the third quarter, the firm said. Another 2.3 million mortgages had less than 5% equity in their home, which could be wiped out if home prices fall further. In the fourth quarter, national home prices fell 1.1% compared with the third quarter, Standard & Poor's reported in a separate report on Tuesday. See full story on Case-Shiller home price index. Once the mortgage is underwater, owners cannot easily sell their home or refinance their loan - 11.3 million homeowners underwater on mortgage

Bloomberg, February 23, 2010: U.S. “problem” banks climbed to the highest level in 17 years, signaling failures may accelerate in 2010, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said. Bank lending had the biggest retreat in more than six decades. The FDIC included 702 banks with $402.8 billion in assets on the confidential list as of Dec. 31, a 27 percent increase from 552 banks with $345.9 billion in assets at the end of the third quarter, the regulator said today in a quarterly report. “Problem” banks account for 8.7 percent of all U.S. lenders. “The growth in the number and assets of institutions on the problem list points to a likely rise in the number of failures,” FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said today at a Washington news conference. - U.S. ‘Problem’ Banks Soar, Lending Drops, FDIC Says
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 26 Feb 2010, 15:25

China may be hiding US Treasury bonds: experts

MSN News, February 26, 2010

China, a top owner of US government debt, appears to be secretly buying bonds via third locations to hide its importance as a major creditor to Washington, experts told a congressional forum.

They said China-linked entities may be scooping up US bonds in London, Hong Kong or other locations, pointing out that official data almost certainly understates Beijing's US government debt holdings.

Some say the massive holdings by China have implications for US national security, making it harder for Washington to carry out policies in conflict with Beijing.

The latest figures by the Treasury Department this month showed a drop in China's Treasury bond holdings by 34.2 billion dollars or 4.3 percent to 755.4 billion dollars in December, the biggest decline in about a decade.

Simon Johnson, a former IMF chief economist, suggested that China could be behind the big jump in Britain's holdings of US debt to 300 billion dollars in 2009 from 130.9 billion dollars a year earlier.

He said he was baffled by the figure as Britain had run a substantial current account deficit last year.

"A great deal of this increase may be due to China placing offshore dollars in London-based banks -- Chinese, UK, or even US -- which then buy US securities," Johnson told a hearing of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which monitors for Congress the security implications of US-China trade and economic relations.

China may also be purchasing US securities through routes other than Britain, said Johnson, who is now a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

"The US Treasury data almost certainly understate Chinese holdings of our government debt because they do not reveal the ultimate country of ownership when instruments are held through an intermediary in another jurisdiction," he said.

Johnson said "a reasonable working assumption" showed that China owns close to one trillion dollars of US Treasury securities -- nearly half of the stock of treasuries in the hands of "foreign official" owners, which was 2.374 trillion dollars at the end of 2009.

"It is all but certain that some purchases made by agents in Britain and Hong Kong were on behalf of SAFE" or the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the secretive Chinese state agency that buys foreign bonds, said Derek Scissors, an Asia economic policy expert at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation.

He said the more than doubling of Treasury bond purchases by Britain and Hong Kong "makes sense" for China as it had to park its huge chest of foreign exchange reserves.

"These cannot be spent at home and are too large to put anywhere other than the United States. No other country has financial markets capable of absorbing them," Scissors said.

"To hide the unavoidable extent of China's exposure to low-yield American bonds and try to avoid domestic flak, SAFE is routing money through third countries," he said.

China accumulated 453 billion dollars in additional foreign exchange reserves in 2009, bringing the total reserves to a record 2.399 trillion dollars at the end of December, latest Chinese government figures showed.

Many analysts argue that any threat by China to shift a large portion of its reserves out of US government paper is just bluster as such a move would impose huge costs on China itself.

But Eswar Prasad, who once headed the IMF's China division, said it was a "reasonably credible threat as the short-term costs to the Chinese of such an action are not likely to be large."

Any dumping of Treasury bonds could lead to a sharp fall in bond prices and the value of the greenback, incurring massive capital losses on the Asian giant owning the large bond holdings.

"But the US leaves itself vulnerable as China might well view these costs as worth bearing in order to preserve its national sovereignty or if trade and other economic disputes with the US came to a head," said Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University.

Republican congressman Frank Wolf told the panel that the situation is bad for US security.

"China is among our biggest 'bankers,'" he said.

"The implications of US debt to China are many and wide-ranging, encompassing everything from our national security to our ability to advocate for repressed and persecuted people."

Om dette medfører riktighet vet jeg ikke, men jeg er overbevist om at Fed er fullstendig klar over hvem som kjøper. Den siste uttalelsen klinger i tillegg både hult og falskt med tanke på at all handel er en overenskomst mellom to parter; kjøper og selger. Vestlige folkevalgtes salg av statsobligasjoner er i realiteten avhending av respektive befolkningers fremtidige produksjon av eiendom i bytte mot midlertidige ressurser for å sikre makt gjennom å holde ikke-bærekraftige samfunnsmodeller flytende. Hva som er årsak og virkning, og hvem som er den største sikkerhetsrisikoen burde da være åpenbart. Som Ayn Rand skrev:

    The doctrine that “human rights” are superior to “property rights” simply means that some human beings have the right to make property out of others; since the competent have nothing to gain from the incompetent, it means the right of the incompetent to own their betters and to use them as productive cattle. Whoever regards this as human and right, has no right to the title of “human” - Human Rights and Property Rights
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg navnditt 28 Feb 2010, 23:24

Spanias valutahandel med Goldman Sachs større enn Hellas:

Hellas 15 mrd euro
Spania 150 mrd euro

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/step-a ... r-minus-16
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 04 Mar 2010, 02:03

Bailout 'would spark revolution'

Independent.ie, March 2, 2010

A revolution will erupt if billions of euro more in taxpayers' money is handed over to Anglo Irish Bank, Enda Kenny has warned.

The Fine Gael leader said people can no longer tolerate massive public funding of the nationalised bank as it stands.

Expected record losses at the bank, to be announced later this month, have fuelled speculation it will seek another six billion euro from the Government, on top of the four billion it has already pumped in.

Mr Kenny told Taoiseach Brian Cowen there will be a popular uprising if any such request is given the go-ahead.

"There'll be revolution on the streets if you do that," he insisted.

"Whatever case can be made for Allied Irish Bank (AIB), there can be no case made for giving six billion euro more of taxpayers' money to Anglo Irish Bank.

"This is effectively a dead bank which will not lend any further monies."

Mr Kenny demanded Anglo be split into a "good bank" and "bad bank" - taking control of the toxic borrowings - before it is given any more help.

The Fine Gael leader also demanded AIB be handed preconditions if it requests further recapitalisation, after the lender went into the red for the first time in its history with pre-tax losses of 2.65 billion euro.

Mr Cowen said Anglo has already asked the European Commission for permission to break up into a "good bank" and "bad bank", and insisted the Government remains ready to give more cash to banks in an effort to save them.
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 23 Mar 2010, 18:57

Zero Hedge, March 22, 2010: We have officially moved from a Greek tragedy to a Greek surreal comedy. After nearly a month-long scapegoating campaign in which Greek PM G-Pap said he would spit in the faces and skullf#@* all those who dared to buy Greek CDS (because as we have all been lied to by everyone who doesn't know the first thing about CDS, it is CDS buying not bond selling that drives spreads), with the stupidity reaching as far and wide as the Spanish and German secret services, which said they would spy on CDS traders in London and New York, Greek daily Kathimerini has just uncovered that the biggest speculator, holding 15%, or $1.2 billion of the total $8 billion in Greek notional CDS, has been a firm that operates about 2 blocks away from the parliament building in Athens - the state-owned Hellenic Post Bank (TT)! Luckily poetic justice is about to be served - The Biggest Greek CDS Speculator Has Been Uncovered
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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 09 Mai 2010, 12:35

Ny film basert på en bok av Johan Norberg:

Jeg har ikke sett filmen, men den virker lovende. Ifølge hjemmesiden vises filmen i dag kl. 20:00 på TV4 Fakta:

    ”Överdos” är berättelsen om vår tids största ekonomiska kris – den som ligger framför oss. Dokumentären spårar orsakerna till finanskrisen och undersöker den kusliga likheten med dagens situation, när stater som Grekland, Island och till och med Storbritannien och USA tycks riskera att kollapsa. Bland de intervjuade finns experter som blev utskrattade när de förutspådde den nuvarande krisen, och som nu säger att det värsta ligger framför oss. Filmen baseras på boken ”En perfekt storm” av författaren Johan Norberg. Hans bestseller ”Till världskapitalismens försvar” har översatts till mer än 20 språk. Världspremiär i Washington DC – nordisk premiär på TV4 Fakta. ”Överdos” får nordisk tevepremiär på TV4 Fakta 9 maj kl 20.00.
Børge Svanstrøm Amundsen

"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 01 Jul 2010, 15:32

Reuters, June 29, 2010: Banks around the world must refinance more than $5 trillion of debts in the coming three years, a massive rollover that poses threats to financial stability and growth. If banks in Britain raise funds at the same pace they have been this year, they will only collect half of their needs in time. This is even before the fact that the banks need desperately to turn some of their riskier short-term funding into more reliable funding with a longer maturity. Banks outside of Britain are perhaps doing marginally better in meeting their needs, but still face an uphill struggle. One easy to see consequence is that, all things being equal, the cost for banks to issue debt should rise, as should competition among banks for consumer deposits. The track record of the past three years tells us one thing is likely: the banks will get their money, courtesy of government support if needed. Something has to give, and it will probably be monetary policy. Look for extraordinarily low rates for a very long time, and for new and bigger quantitative easing programmes - The $5 trillion rollover

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"Atlas was permitted the opinion that he was at liberty, if he wished, to drop the Earth and creep away; but this opinion was all that he was permitted" - Franz Kafka
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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg QIQrrr 08 Nov 2010, 02:02

Zoellick seeks gold standard debate

The Wall Street Journal, November 6, 2010: As the debts of advanced countries rise to levels not seen since the aftermath of World War II, it’s hard to know how much is too much. But it’s easy to see that the risk of serious financial trouble is growing. Next year, fifteen major developed-country governments, including the U.S., Japan, the U.K., Spain and Greece, will have to raise some $10.2 trillion to repay maturing bonds and finance their budget deficits, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. That’s up 7% from this year, and equals 27% of their combined annual economic output - Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing

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Re: Oppdatering om den økonomiske krisen

Innlegg Ultima_Thule 09 Jan 2014, 19:15

IMF paper warns of 'savings tax' and mass write-offs as West's debt hits 200-year high

Debt burdens in developed nations have become extreme by any historical measure and will require a wave of haircuts, warns IMF paper


Much of the Western world will require defaults, a savings tax and higher inflation to clear the way for recovery as debt levels reach a 200-year high, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund.

The IMF working paper said debt burdens in developed nations have become extreme by any historical measure and will require a wave of haircuts, either negotiated 1930s-style write-offs or the standard mix of measures used by the IMF in its “toolkit” for emerging market blow-ups.

“The size of the problem suggests that restructurings will be needed, for example, in the periphery of Europe, far beyond anything discussed in public to this point,” said the paper, by Harvard professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.

The paper said policy elites in the West are still clinging to the illusion that rich countries are different from poorer regions and can therefore chip away at their debts with a blend of austerity cuts, growth, and tinkering (“forbearance”).

The presumption is that advanced economies “do not resort to such gimmicks” such as debt restructuring and repression, which would “give up hard-earned credibility” and throw the economy into a “vicious circle”.

Bilde

But the paper says this mantra borders on “collective amnesia” of European and US history, and is built on “overly optimistic” assumptions that risk doing far more damage to credibility in the end. It is causing the crisis to drag on, blocking a lasting solution. “This denial has led to policies that in some cases risk exacerbating the final costs,” it said.

While use of debt pooling in the eurozone can reduce the need for restructuring or defaults, it comes at the cost of higher burdens for northern taxpayers. This could drag the EMU core states into a recession and aggravate their own debt and ageing crises. The clear implication of the IMF paper is that Germany and the creditor core would do better to bite the bullet on big write-offs immediately rather than buying time with creeping debt mutualisation.

The paper says the Western debt burden is now so big that rich states will need same tonic of debt haircuts, higher inflation and financial repression - defined as an “opaque tax on savers” - as used in countless IMF rescues for emerging markets.

“The magnitude of the overall debt problem facing advanced economies today is difficult to overstate. The current central government debt in advanced economies is approaching a two-century high-water mark,” they said.

Most advanced states wrote off debt in the 1930s, though in different ways. First World War loans from the US were forgiven when the Hoover Moratorium expired in 1934, giving debt relief worth 24pc of GDP to France, 22pc to Britain and 19pc to Italy.

Bilde

This occurred as part of a bigger shake-up following the collapse of the war reparations regime on Germany under the Versailles Treaty. The US itself imposed haircuts on its own creditors worth 16pc of GDP in April 1933 when it abandoned the Gold Standard.

Financial repression can take many forms, including capital controls, interest rate caps or the force-feeding of government debt to captive pension funds and insurance companies. Some of these methods are already in use but not yet on the scale seen in the late 1940s and early 1950s as countries resorted to every trick to tackle their war debts.

The policy is essentially a confiscation of savings, partly achieved by pushing up inflation while rigging the system to stop markets taking evasive action. The UK and the US ran negative real interest rates of -2pc to -4pc for several years after the Second World War. Real rates in Italy and Australia were -5pc.

Both authors of the paper have worked for the IMF, Prof Rogoff as chief economist. They became famous for their best-selling work on sovereign debt crises over the ages, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

They were later embroiled in controversy over a paper suggesting that growth slows sharply once public debt exceeds 90pc of GDP. Critics say it is unclear whether the higher debt is the problem or whether the causality is the other way around, with slow growth causing the debt ratio to rise to faster.

The issue became highly politicised when German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble and EU economics commissioner Olli Rehn began citing the paper to justify eurozone austerity policies, over-stepping its more careful claims.

Critics says extreme austerity without offsetting monetary stimulus is the chief reason why debts have been spiralling upwards even faster in parts of Southern Europe.

The weaker eurozone states are particularly vulnerable to default because they no longer have their own sovereign currencies, putting them in the same position as emerging countries that borrowed in dollars in the 1980s and 1990s. Even so, nations have defaulted through history even when they do borrow in their own currency.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10548104/IMF-paper-warns-of-savings-tax-and-mass-write-offs-as-Wests-debt-hits-200-year-high.html
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